The overall character of the behavior of price action indicates the likelihood, but not the certainty, that current resistance will stand up and repel price back toward underlying levels of support.  Stocks could be putting in a top of some significance.

Time will tell.

Eric$

Over the last few weeks I`ve been telling you to be careful, that the markets could be preparing to take advantage of those of you that are getting on board the bull train late in its run to only retrace and rob you, again…

To be fair I wanted to look at the other side of the medal and see if there wasn`t a trustworthy trader that was bullish about the current markets and I found one. His name is Mike Swanson

I copied his article below. By the way , I remain skeptical about the sustainability of this run and want you to remain cautious and use tight stops so that if it dies crash on us, you are ready to get out, and even take advanatge of the slide down

Now the article:

Last week the markets moved higher. I’m sure you know that. On Friday the unemployment numbers came out and showed a loss of only 36,000 jobs in February when economists were expecting somewhere between 50,000 and 70,000 to be lost. The market went up on Friday and CNBC would like you to think it was because of this news report. Their economist reporter Steve Leisman was absolutely giddy over the numbers, making them out to be a big success for Ben Bernanke’s easy money policies and Obama’s deficit stimulus spending.

However, most economists do not see these numbers as a sign of a huge improvement in the economy. According to BCA Research, “a robust job expansion is still far from certain. The small business sector, a key engine for job growth, is still very pessimistic and is not in payroll expansion mode. In addition, consumer confidence surveys continue to report that job security is markedly absent among consumers, a critical factor in ensuring a self-reinforcing spending cycle.”

Comstock partners believes that the recovery is on shaky ground. In their Friday report they wrote:

“The major drivers of previous economic recoveries in the post-war period have been housing and consumer spending that was spurred by easy credit conditions. Those drivers are just not working this time around. Despite the herculean efforts of the Fed and the White House, credit still remains tight. Bank loans are down 27% from a year earlier while consumer credit is down 4%, the most since World War II. Although the monetary base has soared over the last 15 months, M2 money supply is down 0.3% and MZM money supply is down 4.2% annualized over the last three months. The strong growth of GDP in the 4th quarter was mostly due to a return to more normal inventory levels while real final sales remained weak. Consumer spending has picked up a bit, but only in comparison to the extremely low level of a year earlier. In the period ahead consumers will continue to be restricted by high unemployment, tight credit conditions, sub-par wage increases, lower net worth and the need to raise savings rates and pay off debt. ”

You get the idea.

My point is that I do not think the stock market is going up, because some talking heads got excited about the unemployment numbers on TV. It is not a good idea to make decisions based on news like this or because a reporter on CNBC tells you everything is great. It is market action that matters.

The market is simply rallying off of its low of February and Friday’s action was a continuation of that action and is a positive development in regards to the stock market for the short-term regardless of what the economy does the rest of the year.

You may not have noticed but on Friday the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq actually broke out with the Russell 2000 making a new high for the year and the Nasdaq now only two points away from its high.

Remember how CNBC and Steve Liesman were so worried about the Greek debt defaults right on the February lows and telling you how it could hurt the stock market?

I put out buy recommendations on that very day after holding off since the start of the year.

You CANNOT listen to these guys and make money, because as the market goes higher they are going to get even more excited and will be ecstatic once we get to a top.

That is how they got back in January when the earnings season started and the market made a peak at the same time and I expect it to happen again.

The main scenario I have been drawing out for the stock market seems to be happening. If you recall this is a projection I made for you last weekend:

I do think that Friday’s action is positive for the market for the short-term and provides evidence that something like the above scenario is going to play out – basically a flat to positive market overall with little downside until the start of April earnings season. Then we’d probably see the market get extremely overbought with wildly bullish sentiment again and have to look to a high possibility of another 7-15% correction.

Friday’s action makes it very likely that we’ll now see the S&P 500 reach its highs of January. It may even break them and head into the 1170-1175 area.

Even if the market were to make a slightly higher high I still believe that we are in a sideways trading range market for most of this year

by Mike Swanson